The end of al-Qaida, or just another beginning?

On May 2nd, 2011, al-Qaida lost its only commander for 22 years, Osama bin Laden. Though his death had been celebrated by people world over, it was a day of great loss for al-Qaida itself.

The assassination of bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, has triggered several questions regarding the safety of the world which feared retaliation by loyal and enraged members of al-Qaida. The most pressing matter of them all has been: With the death of its commander-in-chief, is it the end of the al-Qaida?

Even though it was believed that bin Laden’s authority over the activities of the terrorist group was gradually diminishing the Obama administration continued with its efforts to end his “reign” and his ability to attract violent jihadists. These efforts were based on the belief that al-Qaida relied, to a great extent, on the guidance of their former leader.

Juan Zarate, a top counterterrorism official under former American president George W. Bush said: “Clearly, this doesn’t end the threat from al-Qaida and its affiliates. But it deprives it of its core leader and ideological cohesion that bin Laden maintains.”

Ayman al-Zawahri, bin Laden’s Egyptian deputy was declared the new leader of the terrorist organization though according to a report in the New York Times, the delay in this announcement, which was made known in June, 2011, “led some counterterrorism analysts to see signs of a power struggle at the top of al-Qaida.”

Other reports in the New York Times state that in spite of being was second in command to bin Laden and also the organizational brains of the Islamist group, al-Zawahri has “little of the iconic stature of bin Laden.” They also say that he is not an uninspiring model for young militants and describe his mannerisms as “abrasive” and his speeches, “pedantic.”

Such reports lead us to believe that al-Qaida may not have a very bright future without a leader strong enough to guide them along.

As with every story, this too has its own opposing side. In the largely ungoverned terrains of Pakistan’s tribal borders, the al-Qaida set up terrorist training camps and other such groups where it continued to train militants in the “art” of explosives and automatic weapons. An instance of this would be the young Moroccan man, named Abdeladim K. by The Telegraph, who, along with two other supporters, was accused of “taking his orders from a higher official in the terror network based on the Afghan-Pakistan border.”


The decline of al-Qaida’s influence can also be seen in the Arab Spring, which indicates a change in their attitude towards democracy and freedom. These revolutions seen in the Middle East have shown the world that the “change” that the al-Qaida believe in can be achieved peacefully (with the exception of Libya). Though the group had tried to gain from the commitment that could be seen in the protests, their efforts were largely ignored as they believed that violence and destruction were unnecessary means to achieve their ends.

In another New York Times article, Juan Zarate, commenting on al-Qaida and the Arab Spring, said: “al-Qaida has been struggling on the sidelines of the Arab revolution. Its popularity in Arab and Muslim countries has been declining and there are internal divisions about the direction of the movement.

In the same report, the same outlook was echoed by a senior Obama administration official: “Although al-Qaida may not fragment immediately, the loss of Bin Laden puts the group on a path of decline that will be difficult to reverse.”

Even though the most plausible conclusion would be to believe that with Osama bin Laden’s death, it is indeed the end of the road for al-Qaida, but the world still needs to be on alert in case al-Qaida supporters feel the need to avenge bin Laden’s death and make themselves and their continuing movement known.