Taliban: A perpetual threat in Afghanistan?

With the United States withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan, the one major question which emerges is: “Will the Taliban rise again and seize control of the country?”

This leads to further questions like the extent to which the Taliban might control the country this time around and also the kind of chances that the United States supported government has of surviving. Though these questions might remain unanswered for years to come, they are issues that need to be kept an eye out for.

In the backdrop of growing number of cases of violence, murder, looting and extortion, the Taliban came to power in 1996 after the withdrawal of Soviet Union in 1992 and also the fall of the then President Najibullah’s government. It ruled till the 2001 U.S.-led invasion of Pakistan. Despite of being overthrown, the Taliban continued to maintain influence in most parts of the country.

There are several reasons, as have been identified that heped the Taliban gain control over much of the country. They are:

• The downfall of the government left behind after the Soviets left Kabul
• Dissatisfaction of the people with Najibullah’s government
• Pushtun resentment of the government that it felt was majorly non-Pushtun
• External assistance the Taliban received, especially from Pakistan
• Lack of resistance against them

Pakistan’s involvement with the Taliban played a chief role in bringing the Taliban to power. The Taliban was backed by the Pakistan Interim Ministry, Pakistani Inter-services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), and the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (JUI), a Pakistani Islamist group. They supplied the Taliban with weapons, tanks, artillery and even aircrafts. They also received support in the form of training.

Because of the extensive support the Taliban received, and also due to the lack of an opposing army, the Taliban could take over large parts of Afghanistan.

When one looks at the reasons for Taliban’s rise to power, the failure of a government to stand up against the forces sticks out. In spite of its unpopularity, Najibullah’s government could survive for three years largely due to the support it still had from the Soviet military. Their abrupt withdrawal of support led to its downfall. This downfall was not immediately followed by the rise of the Taliban. So it can be presumed that after the U.S. and Coalition forces withdraw completely, their presence might still be felt in the Afghan government which might keep the Taliban at bay, at least for a while. History has shown that Afghanistan needs external support to help control situations that the Taliban is known to create.

The failure of a single leader to gain the support of a majority of the citizens of Afghanistan has been a key reason for Taliban’s power in the country. Unless someone can gain such trust and support to lead the country, it can nearly be guaranteed that Taliban influence in the region will continue.

The opposition posed by the non-Pushtun groups of Afghanistan did not succeed in making much difference as the groups have a penchant of fighting amongst themselves. There is a possibility of the Taliban taking advantage of such discord between the groups, as it did before, to take back control of Afghanistan.

All these factors support the chances of Taliban’s rise to power again in Afghanistan. One prime factor, which was unavailable in 1996 when they came to power, is that Afghanistan might get more external assistance to resist the Taliban now than they did 15 years back. After the withdrawal of the U.S. and Coalition forces completes in 2014, these countries should continue to provide Afghanistan with military support. This may keep the Taliban in control from gaining power again.

Another move that might help keep the Taliban at bay is the presence of a strong government, irrespective who it is being led by. Being able to rightly utilize the external support from other countries will also be a contributing factor.

Once the Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan, Pakistan grasped this chance to gain some influence over Afghanistan. This resulted in them providing support to the Taliban, which people then believed could fight against the growing discontent and corruption in the country.

It is a known fact that the Taliban was financed by agents from Pakistan. What might aid in ensuring that the Taliban’s power is kept in control is severing these ties between Pakistan and the Taliban. Pressure from other countries and imposing sanctions on Pakistan to do so can be of help.

The chances of the Taliban trying to take control over Kabul are more likely than not. Countries combating this strong opponent must remain vigilant and ensure that they put in effect the different factors that can impede this move by the Taliban so history does not repeat itself.