Can the LTTE re-emerge in Sri Lanka?

Founded in May 1976 by Vellupillai Prabhakaran, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was considered a separatist militant organization. It was recognized as a terrorist organization by many countries for its horrifying acts of violence.

With a strong foothold in the Northern and Eastern parts of Sri Lanka, LTTE’s primary demand was a separate state for the Tamils of Sri Lanka. To achieve its purpose, it committed severe atrocities, which included massacring hundreds of civilians, and waged a civil war against the Sri Lankan army from 1983 till 2009. With the demise of its leader Prabhakaran in 2009, LTTE finally admitted defeat and handed the regions that it had control over to the Sri Lankan government.

As the country finally breathed a sigh of relief after its fall and is now moving ahead with attempts to recover from the wounds left behind by the LTTE-inspired struggles, a major question looms over the permanency of this defeat. Having held a position of control in the country for over three decades, one could ponder over the possibility of such a strong organization resurfacing in the region once again. This could have numerous arguments.

N. Manoharan writes in the Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies that the idea of LTTE rising again is unrealistic, seeing that its top leaders as well as most of its troops have been “wiped out.” He is skeptical about the chances LTTE might have of advancing its goals forward without a strong leadership.

Manoharan also says that there are small groups of surviving LTTE soldiers, scattered across the jungles of Sri Lanka, who may want to “rekindle their armed struggle” using guns buried in these jungles. Setting up a headquarters at an undisclosed location as well as forming an executive committee are a few steps, he believes, has been taken by them to “vigorously” carry the cause of their struggle forward.

Moreover , with the Tamils in the region tired of what probably feels like a never-ending conflict in their country, the possibility of them lending their support to LTTE seems unlikely. The initial support that they did receive was, for the most part, out of fear of LTTE’s military machinery. Instead of reviving violence in their regions, the Tamils of the Northern and Eastern provinces of Sri Lanka would rather revive themselves economically and socially.

Besides, there have been improvements in the relationship between the Tamils and the armed forces as well as the establishment of a strong and firm security in these areas of the country, opines D.B.S. Jeyaraj. Also, after decades of armed conflicts in their country, the Sri Lankan people are opposed to the “resumption of violence” in any form which further lessens LTTE’s chances of resurgence in these regions.

There have been debates among the Sri Lankan Diaspora over the final demand of the LTTE and the means used to achieve it. They have conflicting views over this core issue and reaching an agreement over it is a major necessity if LTTE wishes to re-emerge again.

Naveen Kumar, an M. Phil student at JNU, believes that the LTTE lost its power in the first place as factors which once enabled it to hold its power gradually disappeared. Post 9/11, the international community launched an all-out “War on Terror” which helps keep an eye out for any hints of LTTE making an appearance again.

We can conclude by saying that there will always be a possibility of fragmented LTTE militants attempting to resurrect its organization. But with no strong leaders, war-opposed Tamils who wish for no more civilian casualties and also, a central military which now seems more lethal, it appears improbable that the LTTE could gain power in the country once again.